Post by smartarse on Jan 12, 2010 16:37:01 GMT 10
Somalia is an a really messed up country, but a really fantastic place to debate about. Unfortunately most of the debates are now about tackling piracy (which is a serious issue) because most people think that there is no way to effectively debate about fixing up the country itself - every model of international intervention seem improbable at best at suicidal at worst.
Luckily there are some models you can run for how to improve the internal security situation in Somalia - and because everyone things its impossible, you'll have the advantage of surprise if you run these sorts of cases!
First, a little context. Somalia has been a failed state (or several failed states) since the most recent civil war in the early 1990s (see the movie Black Hawk Down for a quick a dirty insight into that war through the lense of its most notorious event).
After allowing Somalia to feed on itself for far too long, the international community finally got together and appointed a Transitional Federal Government to try to take back control and to end the conflict. Unfortunately this government is extremely weak and international military assistance has been minimal and ineffective.
As a result, much of the country is lawless. It has in fact divided itself into three states - Somalia in the south, Somaliland in the centre and Puntland in the north - although international it is still recognised as one state.
Recently things have gotten worse. The 'Al Shabab' militia, an Islamic fundamentalist group who control much of the southern half of the country, have been gaining ground, and even expanding their territory into neighbouring states like Kenya (see news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/africa/8441193.stm)
But its not all bad news, there are some options for the pro-intervention team.
Firstly, there are signs that a major anti-Al Shabab militia is considering aligning itself with the Transitional government. If the international community agreed to arm and maybe train this group (called Alhu Sunna) they could help turn the tables on Al Shabab and give the Transitional government some breathing room and a chance to improve conditions in parts of the country.
For an excellent article on this possibility see: www.stratfor.com/memberships/151734/analysis/20100107_somalia_government_ahlu_sunna_joining_forces
But finally there is another option, either in addition to the Alhu Sunna model, or for debates about piracy. The northern region of Puntland is generally considered to be the most functional and peaceful (i.e. least violent) part of the country. But the self-declared government of Puntland recieves next to no support from the international community of any kind.
If the international community backed Puntland (maybe even recognise it formally) then they could help to consolidate the gains and to even weaken the criminal and extremist groups who are pulling the country down.
For more on that option, see this article from the New York Times
www.nytimes.com/2010/01/04/opinion/04bahadur.html?ref=opinion
So there you have it, lots of new ideas for how to run cases on improving the situation in Somalia without having to attempt the near impossible feat of proposing direct Western military intervention. Enjoy.
Luckily there are some models you can run for how to improve the internal security situation in Somalia - and because everyone things its impossible, you'll have the advantage of surprise if you run these sorts of cases!
First, a little context. Somalia has been a failed state (or several failed states) since the most recent civil war in the early 1990s (see the movie Black Hawk Down for a quick a dirty insight into that war through the lense of its most notorious event).
After allowing Somalia to feed on itself for far too long, the international community finally got together and appointed a Transitional Federal Government to try to take back control and to end the conflict. Unfortunately this government is extremely weak and international military assistance has been minimal and ineffective.
As a result, much of the country is lawless. It has in fact divided itself into three states - Somalia in the south, Somaliland in the centre and Puntland in the north - although international it is still recognised as one state.
Recently things have gotten worse. The 'Al Shabab' militia, an Islamic fundamentalist group who control much of the southern half of the country, have been gaining ground, and even expanding their territory into neighbouring states like Kenya (see news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/africa/8441193.stm)
But its not all bad news, there are some options for the pro-intervention team.
Firstly, there are signs that a major anti-Al Shabab militia is considering aligning itself with the Transitional government. If the international community agreed to arm and maybe train this group (called Alhu Sunna) they could help turn the tables on Al Shabab and give the Transitional government some breathing room and a chance to improve conditions in parts of the country.
For an excellent article on this possibility see: www.stratfor.com/memberships/151734/analysis/20100107_somalia_government_ahlu_sunna_joining_forces
But finally there is another option, either in addition to the Alhu Sunna model, or for debates about piracy. The northern region of Puntland is generally considered to be the most functional and peaceful (i.e. least violent) part of the country. But the self-declared government of Puntland recieves next to no support from the international community of any kind.
If the international community backed Puntland (maybe even recognise it formally) then they could help to consolidate the gains and to even weaken the criminal and extremist groups who are pulling the country down.
For more on that option, see this article from the New York Times
www.nytimes.com/2010/01/04/opinion/04bahadur.html?ref=opinion
So there you have it, lots of new ideas for how to run cases on improving the situation in Somalia without having to attempt the near impossible feat of proposing direct Western military intervention. Enjoy.